Published figure

National Retail Federation: Consumers Expected to Return Nearly $850 Billion in Merchandise in 2025

A press release on how much US shoppers return. We compare a brand’s return rate with its estimate for online sales.

1. 1

   1 · The source

   It’s an estimate that large US retailers gave in a survey.

   Publisher	National Retail Federation, the US retail trade association
   Appeared in	National Retail Federation, press release
   Published	Oct 15, 2025
   Who it covers	358 ecommerce professionals at US merchants with over $500 million in revenue, and 2,006 consumers
   Period	2025, estimated during the year
   Data	Two surveys by Happy Returns, a UPS company
   Original	nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/consumers-expected-to-return-nearly-850-billion-in-merchandise-in-2025 ↗
   We last read it	Sep 30, 2026

2. 2

   2 · The figures we use

   One figure, for return rate.

   Metric	Their figure	Statistic	How theirs differs
   Return rate	19.3%	Estimate	An estimate in dollars by large merchants, not counted units.

   “an estimated 19.3% of online sales will be returned in 2025”

3. 3

   3 · What we leave out

   The page has more figures than the ones we use.

   The release also estimates that 15.8% of all retail sales will be returned. That figure counts store sales too, so we don’t use it.